Why Invest In Homecare? – Revisited – Blackstone Bids For Apria

Blackstone group has bid a 33% premium to take homecare services and distribution company Apria private. The Blackstone investment is $920 million which is big in the homecare industry although relatively modest in Blackstone terms.

All this despite the homecare industry cries of Medicare foul over the what is clearly the biggest pressure on pricing and reimbursement in recent history – especially through the much hated new National Competitive Bidding program.

This investment is clearly good for the industry (however there must be some lawmakers and lobbyists scratching their heads as to how to explain why such a supposedly handicapped industry is attracting investors like Blackstone).

Of course the argument will be made about unlocking the value in Apria which has suffered from some self inflicted wounds in recent years – true – but it also makes great strategic sense as well.

About two years ago I blogged about the coming changes in the industry “(Why) Would You Invest In The Home Healthcare Industry?”

It’s a fairly lengthy analysis however one of the key take aways was that National Competitive Bidding and the future environment would benefit distribution owned groups (like Apria) – looks like Blackstone might be in agreement.

As always the market tells the story. We note that in smaller private deals investors are paying 4 to 6 times multiples for manufacturing companies while distribution companies are fetching double digit multiples today.

In the above analysis the summary takeaway applies even more today than it did then.

Just to be upfront the recommendation is going to be to invest in “change”. Identify what the change will be and buy into it. Divest companies (or management) that believe “nothing much will change”. It is not a place for the faint hearted. It is certainly not business as usual. Past performance is definitely not a reliable indicator in the homecare business today – or rather tomorrow.